Lucerne is redefining the limits of growth

The canton of Lucerne is basing its structural plan on a population of 560,000 by 2050. As current building zones, according to available data, will only last until around 2040, greater emphasis is being placed on densification, city centres and new opportunities for housing.

Lucerne is making spatial plans for growth that will exceed current reserves. The revised cantonal structure plan is geared towards around 120,000 additional residents by 2050. According to available data, assuming current conditions remain unchanged, the legally binding building zones will only last until around 2040. This shifts the debate from the mere management of growth to the question of where, and at what density, new residential and commercial space can still be created at all.

For the property and construction sectors, this is more than just a planning update. The canton is putting pressure on the municipalities to densify central locations more consistently, to manage the sizing of building zones in a way that is tailored to the type of municipality, and to open up additional scope for development in a targeted manner where public transport links and the settlement structure allow for it. The structure plan remains binding on the authorities, but its actual impact will only be felt in land-use planning, site development and planning permission procedures.

Greater pressure on central locations
The revised master plan now extends to 2050. It is based on a scenario that assumes particularly strong population growth for Lucerne compared with the rest of Switzerland. At the same time, the canton is adhering to the principle of accommodating the majority of this growth in urban and well-connected municipalities. This increases the pressure on centres, development axes and restructuring areas. Where under-utilisation still exists today, minimum densities and denser development programmes will be politically easier to justify.

The concept of ‘centre areas’ is now being given greater emphasis. The canton and local authorities are to jointly evaluate such locations with high potential for densification and define them in the structure plan. For project developers, property owners and local authorities, this sends an important signal: future growth should not be spread out widely, but concentrated in a few well-connected locations. Whilst this can streamline procedures, it also places greater demands on open space, infrastructure and public acceptance.

Housing becomes a land-use issue
The structural plan combines infill development with limited scope for additional building zones. In urban municipalities, expansions of up to 8 per cent of legally established building zones are envisaged; in medium-sized municipalities, 6 per cent; and in rural municipalities, 4 per cent. At the same time, targeted extensions to create more housing should remain possible in central locations. For the housing market, this indicates that Lucerne does not intend to resolve the shortage solely through densification of existing developments, but wishes to activate limited reserves where they appear justifiable in terms of settlement planning.

Procedures remain the bottleneck
The canton also intends to exercise greater control across municipal boundaries with regard to employment areas. This is relevant for strategic sites, as lengthy planning and approval procedures, as well as a shortage of building land, are already hampering development today. However, the political roadmap remains a multi-stage process: the 2025 public consultation will be followed by cantonal decisions and then approval by the federal government. The process is not expected to be concluded until 2027. The direction is therefore clear for the market, but implementation remains dependent on municipal planning, consultation and the duration of the procedures.