Ticino is losing its enthusiasm for the property market

Der Schweizer Immobilienanlagemarkt bleibt 2026 im Plus, doch der Höhenflug ist vorbei. Der Swiss Real Estate Sentiment Index fällt von 69,5 auf 47,5 Punkte. Während Zürich, die Zentralschweiz und die Genferseeregion weiter zulegen sollen, rutscht das Tessin klar unter den Trend.

The decline is significant, but not a collapse. The Swiss Real Estate Sentiment Index stands at 47.5 points in 2026, down from 69.5 points in 2025, and thus remains in positive territory despite a noticeable slowdown. The survey is based on the expectations of around 370 experts for the coming twelve months.

It is precisely this combination that makes the new situation particularly noteworthy. Nationwide, confidence in property investment remains strong, but regionally, price forecasts are continuing to diverge. Prices are expected to rise particularly sharply once again in Zurich, Central Switzerland and the Lake Geneva region. Lugano, by contrast, is the only economic centre with falling price expectations, and Ticino as a whole is also in negative territory.

Normalisation following a record year
The new score appears weaker, particularly when compared with the previous year, as 2025 marked the highest level since 2012 at 69.5 points. In 2024, the index had reached 29.9 points, whilst in 2023 it stood at minus 77.4 points. KPMG therefore classifies the decline as a normalisation following an exceptionally strong year rather than a breakdown in the Swiss property investment market.

The south is sending out a warning signal
For investors, developers and owners, this means a shift in focus. The key question in 2026 is not so much whether the Swiss market as a whole is holding up, but rather where price rises are still expected and where calculations need to become more conservative. The fact that Ticino is the only region and Lugano the only economic centre bucking the national trend is exacerbating the differences in valuations, purchase decisions and exit expectations.

This finding is consistent with a market that remains robust but no longer moves in lockstep across the board. According to market sentiment, those betting on further price rises over the next twelve months will find tailwinds particularly in the major growth areas. In Ticino, by contrast, the issue of price is likely to become the litmus test for new investments much sooner.