Consumer confidence collapses
In March 2026, consumer sentiment in Switzerland stood at - 43 points. 8 points below the previous year's level and the lowest level since the beginning of 2024. Households are more pessimistic about the economy, finances and major purchases. Geopolitical tensions are weighing on sentiment. SECO published the data in April.
The decline is abrupt. In January and February 2026, the index was still at around – 30 points, slightly above the previous year’s level. The slump in March to – 43 points is therefore one of the sharpest monthly declines in recent years. The turnaround came quickly and affected several areas simultaneously.
Where sentiment has tipped the most
Three of the four SECO sub-indices are clearly below the level of March 2025. Expectations regarding economic development have slumped the most. The expected financial situation of households and the willingness to make major purchases have also fallen significantly. Only the view of the past financial situation remained stable compared to the previous year.
Geopolitics as a mood killer
The war in Iran and the associated rise in oil prices are seen as the main triggers. Inflation expectations jumped sharply in March: from 98.3 to 121.4 points. At the same time, unemployment expectations rose. Both are having a direct and noticeable impact on household confidence.
What this means for consumption
Falling consumer sentiment is not just a statistical signal. It shows that households are postponing major expenditure and opting for security. For the retail trade, real estate market and construction industry, this means less stimulus from domestic consumption, at least in the short term. Trading Economics expects a gradual recovery to around – 34 points by mid-2026 and – 26 points by 2028.
Whether sentiment recovers depends heavily on the geopolitical situation and price trends. The Swiss economy has been robust so far, but consumer confidence is a leading indicator. If the buying mood remains subdued, the growth figures usually follow with a delay.