Swiss economy between a damper and confidence
The KOF Business Situation Indicator from ETH Zurich shows a mixed picture in December 2025. While the current situation in the Swiss private sector has declined slightly, expectations for the coming six months are rising for the fourth time in a row. The prospect of mild growth in the new year gives rise to faint hopes of an economic recovery.
After two consecutive declines, the KOF Business Situation Indicator is below the level of the summer, but still above the lows of August and September. Economic momentum remains moderate, a weak but stable foundation. The business situation has deteriorated further, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Production and purchasing policies are stagnating and price increases are being planned less frequently. Despite this, expectations for exports and order books are increasingly optimistic. Many companies anticipate a slight improvement in the first half of 2026.
Inconsistent sector trends
The situation is developing differently across all sectors. Project planning offices, financial and insurance service providers and other services are reporting flatter business development, while the construction and retail sectors are seeing a slight recovery.
These contrasts are also evident in expectations. Confidence prevails in the construction industry and among financial and insurance service providers, while retailers and planning offices are somewhat more cautious. The retail trade recorded the second consecutive decline in its expectations indicator. This is a sign that consumer trends are only hesitantly consolidating.
The gloom remains
From a regional perspective, the current business situation is falling in all parts of the country. Central Switzerland, Espace Mittelland, Eastern Switzerland, Zurich and Northwestern Switzerland are particularly affected. The decline remains more moderate in Ticino and the Lake Geneva region. The indicator shows that economic pressure is being felt throughout the country, despite stable exports and services.
Economic clock shows cautious recovery
The KOF illustrates the tension between the present and the future. The situation remains below average, while the prospects are above average. With a tentative recovery in 2025, the Swiss economy has not yet moved into a genuine upswing. Nevertheless, the increasing brightening of expectations is a harbinger that 2026 could bring better momentum. Supported by robust service sectors, stable export expectations and a gentle recovery in construction.
At the turn of the year, the Swiss economy continues to be characterized by stability with slight headwinds. While the present is characterized by a slower pace, many companies are looking ahead optimistically in the hope that 2026 will be the year of a genuine economic recovery.
