Investment plans weaken in 2025, record high in 2026

June 2025

Swiss companies' investment plans for 2025 are positive overall despite the subdued outlook. However, geopolitical tensions, in particular the US tariff announcement, have contributed noticeably to the slowdown. For 2026, companies are more optimistic than ever before.

According to the latest KOF Investment Survey, Swiss companies are planning to increase their gross fixed capital formation by 2.9% in nominal terms in 2025 compared to the previous year. This means that the expected growth is not only below the historical average, but also below the forecasts of the last survey in autumn 2024. Construction investment in particular, which has been the main driver of Swiss investment activity to date, is expected to increase by 4.5%, but is showing a noticeable slowdown compared to expectations from the previous year. Equipment investment is expected to grow by 2.2% and research expenditure by 2.5%.

In the services sector, optimism has dampened noticeably. Instead of the previously forecast growth of 4.7 percent, companies are only expecting an increase of 3.1 percent. In the construction industry, fixed asset investments are even forecast to fall by 1.1%, a significant correction compared to the previously expected stagnation. In manufacturing, on the other hand, the outlook remains largely stable, with a forecast increase of 1.4%.

Tariff announcement weighs on investment security
A key reason for the subdued expectations is the US tariff announcement from April 2025, which envisages a tariff rate of 31% for Swiss imports into the USA. With the help of a quasi-experimental analysis, the KOF was able to show that the announcement had a noticeable effect on investment decisions. Companies that completed their questionnaire after April 2 reported an increase in reduced investment plans. Before the announcement, around 30 percent of companies were planning to reduce their investment in equipment. After the announcement, this proportion rose to 35%, while the proportion of companies with unchanged plans fell from 40% to 36%.

Similar patterns can be seen in construction investment, while research expenditure appears to have remained largely unaffected. Companies that were already planning expansion investments stuck to their plans. In contrast, many companies that had not previously planned any changes scaled back their plans, a clear indication of the increased uncertainty.

Significant increase in investment uncertainty
The certainty of investment realization also deteriorated following the customs announcement. The proportion of companies that rate their investment plans as more uncertain rose from 12% to 22%. At the same time, the proportion of those who did not notice any change in security fell from around two thirds to 56%. The proportion with an improved security assessment remained constant at around 21%.

Focus on rationalization and climate investments
The changed environment has influenced companies’ investment motives. Expansion investments, traditionally risky, are increasingly viewed with caution. Instead, the idea of rationalization is gaining in importance. The role of environmental and climate protection investments is also growing. While 60% of companies took corresponding measures last year, 69% intend to invest in climate protection and adaptation to extreme weather conditions over the next three years. This is despite the fact that almost a third of companies state that they are not currently directly affected by climate change. At the same time, the proportion of companies that see the transition to more climate-friendly standards as an opportunity has fallen from 42% to 39%. The proportion of those who see it as a risk, on the other hand, has risen to 28%.

Optimistic forecasts for 2026
The picture for 2026 is completely different. Never before since the KOF surveys began have so many companies planned to increase their investments. 28% of the companies surveyed are planning to invest more in equipment, while the figure for construction investment is as high as 29%. At the same time, the proportion of companies expecting a decline has fallen significantly to just 14%. Companies from the manufacturing and service sectors are particularly optimistic.

Opportunities and risks at a glance
The KOF analysis underlines the high adaptability of Swiss companies. While geopolitical risks such as US customs policy are leading to investment cuts and uncertainty in the short term, many companies are focusing on growth and climate investments in the long term.

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