Swiss electricity supply 2050 on the brink of major expansion
Switzerland's energy supply should be climate-neutral and nuclear-free by 2050. A new research report shows that photovoltaics and wind power must be massively expanded. At the same time, access to the European electricity market remains crucial in order to guarantee security of supply and affordable energy.
The electrification of transportation, heating and industry will drive electricity consumption from 56 terawatt hours today to around 75 terawatt hours per year. At the same time, 23 terawatt hours will be lost from nuclear power plants. The EDGE research network has calculated that Switzerland can achieve its target of 45 terawatt hours from new renewable energies, but only with a strong expansion of photovoltaics and wind power.
Expansion of photovoltaics and wind energy
Photovoltaics would have to quadruple its capacity from the current 6.4 gigawatts to almost 27 gigawatts. Wind power would need to be expanded more than 80-fold, from 0.1 to 8.4 gigawatts by 2050. Wind energy plays a key role, particularly in winter. The researchers emphasize that this expansion would hardly be possible without subsidies.
Dependence on the European electricity market
The Electricity Act limits winter imports to a maximum of 5 terawatt hours. Strict implementation would significantly increase investments and costs. More wind and solar power plants would be needed and the price of electricity could double. Restricting EU electricity trading by 70 percent would require additional wind capacity and further increase costs. EDGE researchers therefore see access to the European electricity market as crucial.
Investments flow abroad
More than half of Swiss investments in renewable energy projects currently flow abroad, primarily to Germany, France and Italy. Only around one percent remains in Switzerland. The reason for this is the limited opportunities for realization in Switzerland. Wind energy projects in particular are financed by Swiss investors abroad.
Costs of the energy transition
The transformation to net zero will result in rising prices for fossil fuels, goods and services. For Swiss households, this means annual consumption losses of 0.6 to 1 percent, depending on the scenario. If emissions are not offset abroad, the burden will increase further. At the same time, the researchers emphasize that the costs of unchecked climate change would be significantly higher.
Switzerland can achieve its energy targets by 2050, but only with a massive expansion of photovoltaics and wind energy, close European market integration and targeted investments. The challenge remains to reconcile security of supply, climate targets and costs.