KOF between crises, AI and a clear stance
In this interview, Jan-Egbert Sturm and Hans Gersbach take stock of the economic year 2024 and look to the future. They talk about Germany's structural problems, global uncertainties, the role of AI and how the KOF remains true to itself in the face of growing competition.
2024 was a year of significant upheaval. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich responded with new formats, expanded methods and a clear positioning that is evidence-based, independent and relevant. The weakening German economy and geopolitical uncertainties, such as the election of Donald Trump, also influenced the forecasts for Switzerland. The KOF favoured scenarios over rigid forecasts and adapted its forecasting model to current requirements.
Third-party funding, data and dynamism
In the intensified competition for third-party funding, KOF is focussing on practical, data-oriented research. Projects are becoming larger and international co-operation is increasing. At the same time, the claim remains clear: KOF remains an independent voice with scientific depth. With the expansion of the KOF Lab, the institution is creating space for cross-sector analyses on monetary policy, health and social inequality and is specifically promoting young talent.
Utilising potential with a sense of proportion
Both Sturm and Gersbach see great opportunities in AI, but not an overnight revolution. Rather, it is about continuous productivity gains, flanked by smart regulation. The KOF itself uses modern methods, but remains cautious about hypes. Research that has an impact is the goal, not technology for technology’s sake.
Open questions for 2025
Looking ahead to the new year, the directors see key challenges in analysing tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers and geopolitical tensions. The lessons from the collapse of Credit Suisse have not yet been fully learnt and the future of banking regulation also remains an issue. The KOF observes, analyses and remains clear in its stance, fact-based, forward-looking and independent.