Flash GDP shows only minimal growth
The Swiss economy noticeably lost momentum in the second quarter of 2025. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs' flash estimate, gross domestic product only grew by 0.1%. While industry was under pressure, the service sector prevented stagnation.
After a solid start to the year with growth of 0.8%, the momentum of the Swiss economy slowed significantly in spring 2025. According to the flash estimate published by Seco on Friday, GDP rose by just 0.1% in the second quarter. This confirms the impression of a cooling economy, which is in line with expectations but well below the start of the year.
Industry weakens
The main reason for the meagre growth was a negative development in industry, which was characterized by falling demand and global uncertainty. By contrast, the service sector proved to be a stabilizing factor. It was able to partially compensate for the declines in industry and thus prevented zero growth. Consumer-related services and the finance and insurance sector in particular performed robustly.
Pharmaceutical exports fueled the first quarter
The clear contrast to the start of the year illustrates the volatility of the Swiss economy. An extraordinary special effect boosted the economy in the first quarter. The uncertainties surrounding possible US tariffs led to exports, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, being brought forward to the USA before new regulations came into force. This pull-forward effect contributed significantly to the 0.8% increase at the time, but has now disappeared.
Disagreement among economists
The current trend is in line with forecasts, but experts’ assessments differed widely in advance. The economists surveyed by the news agency AWP ranged from a slight decline of 0.3% to growth of 0.3%. The increase of 0.1% now reported is therefore exactly in the middle of expectations.
Methodology and outlook
The published figures are based on a quick estimate (“flash GDP”), which is published around 45 days after the end of the quarter. Seco combines early production data with forecasts in order to provide an initial indication of the economic trend. As incomplete basic data is still used, the values may change in the regular publication. The official estimate, including detailed analyses on the production, use and income side, will be published on August 28, 2025.
A comprehensive revision of the national accounts is also due later in the year. The revised GDP data from 1980 to the second quarter of 2025 will be published on September 29, 2025.
The Swiss economy is virtually treading water in spring 2025. While industry continues to struggle with difficult conditions, the robust service sector is preventing a slide into stagnation. The coming months will show whether the economy will stabilize or whether further braking effects will dampen development. International trade relations, the development of interest rates and global demand will remain decisive factors.